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ACC and indices: CAC

The ACC has recovered well over 3985 points, a few points in the 50% retracement of the entire impulse born Jan. 10 on 3800 points. This retracement now appears to be the dominant factor technique .

To try to understand the result of the movement, here is a parallel between the ACC and the ACC in 2007 today.

ACC in 2007
ACC today "s

Important Clarification: these two graphs, MM long (not shown) are on the rise, indicating an upward cycle.

Commonalities : slow rise, sharp drop, gap.

Following the scenario: I let you go to the ACC in early 2007! ;). It is a working hypothesis that seems plausible.

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working hypothesis: long opening

Total uncertainty short term : areas of support in Europe and the U.S. are slightly crossed, but no signal franc. Volumes are means (media-promoted) while oil continues to rise.

So I underestimated the strength of this wave of correction and the ACC, there is a chance to join the major support at 3955. To counter this risk, I place the stop at 3998 on my 4028 open position.

NB: my conviction remains intact on the rising market in the medium term.

9:01: activated stop 3985 -> lost 43 points

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4028 INDEX: open-end correction

The VIX, commonly called "fear index," jumped 26% yesterday, as the January 29 last . The reflex is very anchored coverage among stakeholders: is it compatible with an extension of the correction movement? In late January, it was remained without a future.


CONCLUSION:

The correction is completed? it is a possibility that should not be overlooked in the U.S.. In Europe, the diversity of graphic patterns makes it difficult to identify entry points along. In the ACC, area is under surveillance 4026/4010 .

ACC Position: neutral. Find a point of entry along, perhaps in the 4026/4010 area.

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ACC: stop activated in 4065

Scenario B enabled. Lost 60 points.

Getting observation support to 4010. Possible purchase on this level if it is 7225 on the Dax.

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INDEX: one or two sessions of decline?

First, why is this under "one or two sessions of decline? Because, in bull market, the correction phases are distinguished by their exceptional speed. Commonly observed that a few hours of down enough to cancel a week of rising ... resurgence before the slow upward trend. is why I opt for a correction does not drag on over time, but the depth is still difficult to assess .

Second, you notice that after my open position 4125 4075 stop depends on the question posed in my title.


Two scenarios are possible:

A) Preserving MM150 and support 4085 tomorrow morning. A double-hollow ID materialize between 4120 and 4085 before new upward momentum.

B) correction continues with the appearance of a gap in 4085. ACC continues its violent correction in the wake of Dax (below) referring to an important support for 7225 (50% of the last movement and Support weekly). ACC position would be stopped to be reopened later in the next two days on about 4010.

Dax (daily)


CONCLUSION:

The violent break 4120 weakens the configuration in the very short term. The correction is completed it or will it widen towards 4010 points? In case of stop enabled, the strategy will be open long 4010.

ACC Position: Long on 4025, to stop 4075. When activated the stop (announced on the blog) a new long position will be attempted on 4010.

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ACC: Opening LONG

On 10 and 11 February, the Egyptian crisis had caused a knee-jerk reaction of the markets. A support to 4040 had then formed, reinforced by MM150 hours.

The resurgence of unrest in the Middle East affects the indices this morning, returning the ACC on the solid support to 4120, reinforced by the continuing gap .

I take this decline in 4125 to open long. The stop will be under the MM150 hours or about 4080.

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ACC in 4125: Enjoy a retreat to 4130/4118

progression of CAC was modeled over a month on the MM20 MM150 days or hours . The courses are far away significantly: one can therefore expect a calm early this week, the time that this support slipping back into contact with price. A new rebound about 100-120 points will then be considered.

To play this movement, the ideal entry point is between 4130 and 4118, the lower limit of the gap continuation .


The sentiment indicators (SI) confirm this anticipation of rebound. Indeed, EPCR 5 days does not accept too little despite the continued rise of the indices for a month.

CONCLUSION:

Finding an entry point along the contact of the MM150 hours, or the 4130/4118 area. The timing of this intervention could not intervene in midweek.

NB: anticipation bullish on ACC is naturally supported by graphical configuration of the other indices Western (Nasdaq 100, SP500, Dax, Nikkei ...).

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ACC: open long if ACC = ACC

I'm missing part of the day. The position will be opened automatically if the ACC is testing support at 4130. The stop will be under the MM150 hours.

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4130: pull-back track

ACC was freed yesterday in large volumes (related to banks) from the oblique ascending in place for nearly a month. Two scenarios are under consideration:

1) This oblique now plays the role of support: the pull-back is complete and the ACC again towards 4175, short-term objective (fibo extension ) .
2) the slant is more relevant and ACC continued its pull-back on the rack 4120, purchase level reinforced by gap continuation.

CONCLUSION:

Two levels of purchase are available: 4145 or 4120 to aim 4175 and a continuation of the bullish momentum in the medium term to 4500.

-> Configuration ID entry suggests a lot about 4145.

-> Configuration daily banking, test their highs of 2010, suggests rather wait 4120.

ACC Current Position: neutral. Find a point of entry long.

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CAC: CAC

Under the effect of banking, ACC accelerates the pace, breaking with its slow and jerky in place for almost a month.

3 new technical elements appear:

1) The last retracement on 4085 was more conventional (50%) and shallower than previous ones.
2) a gap opens daily : one can question his continuation character gap after the break observed on January 12.
3) obliquely upward is overwhelmed.

can therefore set a target next CT 4175 (Fibo extension) before pull-back on the oblique, which should be transformed into support.

CONCLUSION:

Conviction further strengthened an ACC in May 4500 following the good graphics signals issued by banks French. Neutral current position, looking for a point on the long decline to accompany the movement.

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accelerating pace: Research entry point along

ACC rises slowly and jerkily. It is a characteristic of bull cycles: they do not want, as shown in the stability of indicators of sentiment despite the continued growth indices.

ACC develops a well-known configuration of the upward trend: each new high is marginal and triggers a correction of 60 to 70% of the previous movement .

Consequently, and by iteration, we can expect a return on 4070 within hours / days to come, before registering a new record to 4150 . This summit should lock on the upward sloping resistance in place since January 24.

As for U.S., RAS There is always the Nasdaq Composite a very nice set of candles with green fences close to the highest of the day.

CONCLUSION:

I will open very long, probably the CWC 4070. The stop will be short: in 4040, and the goal to 4150. If this scenario does not work, I will seek an entry point lower at 4010 or 3955. I note that no support is still broken on the values of ACC, and has been for several weeks.

ACC Position: neutral pending open long decline.

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ACC: bullish conviction intact MT &

The past week has once again reinforced my belief bullish for the coming weeks. I still think the ACC has signed a lease to the Bull in May 4500 period, which is often a rotating calendar.

Among the arguments in the flash of January 30, I advanced that "when a downward shock graphically is erased, the probabilities militate for an extension of up beyond the starting point of the crash (on the CAC, April 2010) ".

To illustrate this argument, here below the graph then the ACC SAP services company listed on the Dax 30.

Observe the comparison (the dates are not important): the scenario of SAP (above) will, in my opinion, occur on the ACC .

CONCLUSION:

The market will most likely continue its slow ascent interspersed with violent corrections as last week. These folds constitute opportunities.

ACC Current Position: neutral after activating my stop last week. Find a new point of entry long.

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CAC indices: Uptrend in place

After being trapped by bad yesterday intraday advance, I take a bit of height with a daily analysis of ACC.

Here's where the ACC as I see it:

- the bull market began on 3800 points, coinjointement a better relative performance of Europe and a clearly upward of MM150 .

- observed the first rush on 3800 was accompanied by a fracture gap . Since then we have the characteristics of the bull market: slow rise with reduced volatility of 50 points per session on average.

- note how the attacks swales, whose duration shall not exceed two days, are routinely countered through low shadows on the candlesticks.

- side component of the CAC, the signals bullish successive (or previous analysis and commentary), pérénisant the upward trend for many weeks in my opinion.

- If gap Friday continuation , we can evaluate the cycle at its half, or 300 points remaining. An extension of the movement would win the next major resistance at 4500-4550 , which should correspond to a rallying highs on the Dax .



In the short term, I is also very good configuration Nasdaq with 9 consecutive green body and almost as many fences at the top. No reason for the rise stairs do not continue.

CONCLUSION:

A bull market is up to me for several weeks (until early May?). I should therefore find a point of entry along to accompany this movement. To monitor this Friday the materialization of a continuation gap.